(Fictive) After-action report from Op "Ceuta"
How EU failed the test
Nathalie Tocci has an excellent and hard-hitting piece on the migrant crisis in Ceuta that I recommend everyone read. Tocci is a serious and well-connected person whom I know and respect tremendously. She was an adviser to two heads of the European External Action Service and used to run the Italian Institute for International Affairs. Her piece argues that the crisis was manufactured, and that the way nationalist parties in Europe responded to it aided and abetted external actors who sought to harm Spanish and European interests.
While it may be a while before we learn with certainty exactly what prompted 70,000 migrants to suddenly rush into the small Spanish territory in North Africa from neighboring Morocco, I think that it is safe to assume that Tocci is broadly correct. The crisis was probably manufactured and certainly amplified. There are multiple media accounts of Moroccan police encouraging Moroccans to get to Ceuta and videos supposedly showing Moroccan police standing by as trucks unload hundreds of migrants. Ukraine’s foreign minister noted that Russian accounts pushed 1,500 stories about the crisis, and Musk and his army of right-wing followers on X were not far behind.
Using migrants as “weapons” to pressure neighbors is an established practice, and Morocco has been accused of doing it before. While rumors on social media can emerge and gain a life on their own, I think that it would be naive to deny that this was almost certainly orchestrated and that Moroccan authorities played a key role in it. Given that some 70 people died in the incident, this would be a very serious crime; perhaps a violation of the Rome Statute’s prohibition against forcible transfer of populations.
Unfortunately, we also know that other actors have used refugee weaponization as an instrument of hybrid warfare before: Hungary, Turkey, the UAE, and most prominently, Russia. Did Morocco do this alone or did it have help and encouragement from other actors? Tocci notes correctly that Russia, Israel, and the Trump administration might have interests in attacking Europe and Spain.
“We have already seen the MAGA world and the Kremlin working in concert to divide Europe in the Ukrainian theatre. Ceuta is the sequel.” (Nathalie Tocci)
I will remain agnostic on the matter until there is more evidence. However, assuming Ceuta was a deliberate covert operation by Moroccan actors—alone or in cooperation with other external foes of Spain and Europe—how would the team behind the op evaluate it and Europe’s response? I think that it could be worthwhile to imagine their reasoning to see our own response from an adversary’s perspective. To do a red team analysis of sorts, if you will.
Hence: let’s say I were an intelligence operative tasked with covert actions and influence operations aimed at hurting the sitting government in Spain and undermining Europe. I work either for Morocco or for another foreign government that has beef with Spain and Europe (I’ll be vague and let your imagination run wild here since there really are several possible candidates) to manufacture a temporary migrant crisis in the Spanish territory of Ceuta on the Mediterranean coast of Africa. What would my report after the conclusion of the active measure look like?
Spoiler alert: The main conclusion would not be kind to European states and the way that they handled it:
Fears of migration remain one of the most fruitful topics for further active measures. European politicians are easily manipulated and reflexive control is firmly in our hands. Divisions can easily be exacerbated and Europe weakened by playing on political divisions on this topic and others like it.
Europe really needs to be better prepared and avoid the main trap of internal division. As the saying goes: United we stand, divided we fall.
Rapport d’Action Opération “Ceuta2026” (fictive)
Location: Morocco and Ceuta, Spain
Date: July 30-31, 2026
Note: Conducted simultaneously with a separate media influence operation called “#August1”
Concept: Large numbers of migrants were encouraged to swarm the Spanish enclave of Ceuta, bordering Morocco. Repeat of 2021 action on a larger scale (see Rapport d’Action Opération “Ceuta2021”).
Execution:
A team of six people carried out the operation in cooperation with police.
On the morning of July 30, operatives knocked on doors in Castillejos/Fnideq and encouraged residents to leave for Ceuta.
Police were instructed to encourage and aid movement to Ceuta.
Social media posts claiming that the border was open were posted on several platforms.
60-80,000 people swarmed Ceuta in a span of two days.
Ca 70 deaths due to drowning or stampede.
Objectives:
Destabilize the Pedro Sanchez government.
Impose costs on Sanchez for refusing to align with our foreign policy objectives.
Exacerbate disruptive conditions between EU member states.
Improve position of oppositional far-right, anti-establishment parties within the EU.
Evaluation of results:
Destabilize govt objective met. Polling is not yet available in Spain, but Sanchez has been much weakened by attacks from multiple EU member state governments. He has been forced on the defensive.
Impose cost objective met. Madrid government has indicated that they understand that this was a controlled measure, in response to Madrid’s unwillingness to meet requirements.
EU division objective met. Italian government closed border to Spain and 22 EU member states sent a letter to the European Commission accusing him and Spain of creating “a pull factor” for migration with his migration policy. Sanchez has hit back. Internal European divisions exceeded our expectations. This confirms our established analysis that migration is the number one weakness in Europe and remains highly ripe for targeting.
Enhance far right objective met. Polling is not yet available, but social & tabloid media images and coverage that evoke memories of the 2015-15 refugee crisis (see Rapport d’Action Opération “Syria2015”), coupled with our own media and social media Operation “#August1” that immediately amplified those fears, were readily taken up by anti-establishment parties on the right. Mainstream parties on the right/center right played into the narrative, with public statements blaming the Spanish government and raising the spectre of another migrant crisis. Our analysis is that this will contribute to our objective of bringing down establishment governments in Europe and replacing them with far-right parties more amenable to our points of view.
Coverage in European media was extensive and included pictures and videos of thousands of migrants climbing border fences and emerging en masse out of the sea. Headlines in right-wing tabloids prominently included “Invasion”. Media links included in the appendix.
Conclusions and recommendations:
Fears of migration remain one of the most fruitful topics for further active measures. European politicians are easily manipulated and reflexive control is firmly in our hands. Divisions can easily be exacerbated and Europe weakened by playing on political divisions on this topic and others like it.
The op yet again revealed that the European Union’s ability to quickly act in a cohesive fashion is weak, and External Action Service measures are non-existent or toothless. Member states focus on populist media commentary as opposed to centralised, productive efforts.
Combining active measures like “Ceuta” with pre-planned Info Ops like “#August1” that use media and social media to stoke division, fear, and hatred remains highly effective against a Europe in which politics is still national.
Appendix: Media Coverage
Breitbart’s headline was explicit: "Ceuta 'Invasion': 49,000+ Illegals Swim to Spanish Territory in 24 Hours." Link: https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2026/07/31/ceuta-invasion-49000-illegals-swim-to-spanish-territory-in-24-hours/
The Daily Signal ran a piece titled “Ceuta Invasion Is the Predictable Result of Spanish Amnesty,” which explicitly framed the crossings as a modern echo of the 8th-century Umayyad conquest of Iberia. Link: https://www.dailysignal.com/2026/07/30/ceuta-invasion-is-the-predictable-result-of-spanish-amnesty/
German outlet Tichys Einblick (opinion/movement site, not a tabloid but influential in that space) ran the headline “Invasion: Knapp 50.000 Menschen überrollen binnen 24 Stunden Ceuta” (”Invasion: Nearly 50,000 people overrun Ceuta within 24 hours”), describing arrivals as “Invasoren” (invaders) throughout. Link: https://www.tichyseinblick.de/kolumnen/aus-aller-welt/marokko-ceuta-europa/
Journalistenwatch (German far-right outlet) ran “Invasion auf Ceuta,” quoting AfD parliamentary spokesman Gottfried Curio. Link: https://journalistenwatch.com/2026/08/01/invasion-auf-ceuta-der-kanzler-schwafelt-die-afd-will-handeln/
Notes:
My after-action “report” is of course entirely fictional, but I based it loosely on the format of a real after-action report by a group of Serbian nationals working for Russian intelligence. The group reported back to their handlers an information op where “Ten severed pig heads were delivered to mosques and Muslim cultural centers in Paris, each marked on the forehead with "MACRON" in blue marker or another permanent ink.” The full report in Russian can be found here: https://dossier.center/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/980988765576e78-Otchet-ob-Aktsii-Svinaya-golova.pdf
Thanks to John Sjoholm for feedback on an earlier draft of this post.